| Stock Market movements are governed by | | | | always been predicted when |
| mainly five factors - fundamental,technical, | | | | Jupiter transits the 2nd. CMIE points out that this |
| macroeconomic, political & planetary ! | | | | year GDP growth will be |
| Nelson who wrote the 'ABC of Stock Speculation ' | | | | 7.4 %. |
| designated the researchfindings of Dow Jones as | | | | We had in our earlier articles identified the primary |
| the Dow Jones Theory. Charles Dow was frank | | | | trend as bullish. Asecondary reaction is expected |
| instating that his Theory is not infallible and that | | | | at any moment now. The market can dip |
| the real method offorecasting the duration or | | | | byabout 400/500 points and we have already |
| extent of a primary trend was unknown to | | | | warned our subscribers about thisdanger. During |
| Technical Analysis ! | | | | the market dip you can either hold your portfolio |
| Identifying the Primary Trend is difficult. Even | | | | or sell offat high levels and enter at low levels ! |
| Secondary Reactions aredeceptive. There is only | | | | The Dow Jones Theory states that Markets |
| one Science which can forecast this and it is | | | | move in three trends - primary,secondary & |
| Stock | | | | tertiary. |
| Market Astrology ! | | | | Primary Movement |
| Fundamental Analysis concentrates on the Intrinsic | | | | The first, and the most important is the primary |
| Value of the Share, but | | | | trend which is the broadtrend ( which is upward |
| Intrinsic Value has no practical value, as stock | | | | or downward ) which is known as a bull or |
| prices are eitheroverpriced or underpriced. | | | | bearmarket extending over periods which may |
| Technical Analysis can indicate whether themarket | | | | vary from less than a year toseveral years and is |
| is bearish or bullish, but cannot easily identify | | | | generally interrupted by secondary reactions. |
| trends. Thebeginning of a Primary Bull Market may | | | | Secondary Movement |
| appear as a bear rally. Similarly thestart of a | | | | Second and the most deceptive movement is the |
| Primary Bear Market may appear as a bull decline. | | | | secondary reaction - animportant decline in a bull |
| There areunknown & hidden factors determining | | | | market or a rally in a primary bear market |
| stock market movements likemacroeconomic, | | | | andwhich usually lasts from three weeks to three |
| political and planetary factors. Neither Nelson's | | | | months. |
| book ' The | | | | Tertiary Movement |
| ABC of Stock Speculation' nor Hamilton's " Stock | | | | The third movement is the daily fluctuation. This is |
| Market Barometer"supposed to be a Bible for | | | | the least important ofall the three movements. |
| stock investors ) take these hidden factors | | | | The Primary Bull Market |
| intoconsideration. Stock Market Astrology alone | | | | Averaging more than 2 years, a primary bull |
| takes into cognizance all thefive fundamental | | | | market is a broad upwardmovement, interrupted |
| factors and can identify primary trends and | | | | by secondary reactions Due to improved |
| secondaryreactions ! | | | | businessconditions and increase in speculative |
| In our earlier articles, we have already given all | | | | activity stock prices advance becauseof demand |
| the five factorsresponsible for the major bull run | | | | created by both speculation and investment. |
| on the Indian bourses. | | | | There three characteristics of a bull period are |
| Correlation of Planetary Cycles & Economic | | | | 1) Revival of business confidence due to optimism |
| Cycles | | | | 2) The rise of stock prices to the known |
| Jupiter Cycles & Indian Economy | | | | improvement in corporate earnings. |
| When the Narasimha Rao Government initiated | | | | 3) Speculation is rampant - a period when stocks |
| liberalisation in 1991, India's | | | | rise on expectations &euphoria. |
| GDP growth was just 3 %. After that GDP grew | | | | We have seen that there is an economic revival, |
| at an average 6%. Jupiter wasin Leo in 1991 and | | | | corporate earnings have goneup and speculation is |
| now Jupiter has completed one Jupiter Cycle of | | | | becoming the order of the day. |
| 12 years. | | | | The investor population is confused, they do not |
| He is starting another cycle and we will have | | | | know whether it is the endof a Bull Phase and the |
| better growth. His transit of | | | | beginning of a Bear Phase. I was talking to a |
| Scorpio was a bullish factor for India ( He was in | | | | friendand he is of the opinion that the market is |
| India's lunar fifth, till | | | | overheated and may crash at anymoment ! |
| Nov ) Economic boom ( Vitha Samruddhi ) has | | | | Things are not so. |